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Do Withdrawal Rates Make Sense for Retirement?

As you plan your retirement, one of the biggest questions that comes up is how much can I afford to spend each year, and how can I be sure that I won't run out of money if I spend at a certain rate? And a lot of people look to a withdrawal rate to help them figure that out, in other words, they might say, Maybe I can spend 4% or 3%, and that way I would have enough money to last for the rest of my life, but I think there are a lot better ways to go about that, so I wanted to review those with you and point out some of the issues, and hopefully this way you see what you might be missing out on if you use a withdrawal rate and you don't have to waste any time obsessing over what exactly is the perfect rate…

I should mention that when I work with clients, we don't really even look at The withdrawal rate, it's something we can find after the fact, after we've done some more robust planning, but we don't start with a withdraw rate, it's just something we might check out of curiosity. As a quick refresher, a withdrawal rate is a way of looking at how much you're pulling out of your savings and investments that are earmarked for retirement. Perhaps. The most famous and the most notorious is the so called 4% rule, which is really more of a research finding, so it's not a rule that you would necessarily follow, although some people talk about it that way. It's based on some research that was done by Bill Bengen where he looked at how much could you withdraw from a portfolio over a typical 30 year retirement horizon, and let's say you have a 50 50 stock and bond portfolio.

Well, what it turned out was in his research at the time, you could take out 4% of your starting portfolio and adjust it for inflation and not run out of money in any of those worst case scenario historical periods that lasted 30 years. Now, since then, the rule has been debated and criticized and refined, and people talk about things like, what about the current environment? Or what if I diversify more? How might that look? And a lot of people just love or hate the 4% rule. Either way, I don't think it's the best way to go about it, but it's important to understand how it works. So just for simplicity's sake, let's use round numbers that are easy to multiply in our head, and we'll say, let's say you have 100,000, or for each 100,000 of savings that you have at retirement, we would say You can pull 4% of that out per year, and we start with your first year, 4% of 100,000 is 4,000. So that's your Year One withdrawal, now you're going to adjust this for inflation each year, so in the subsequent here, If inflation is anything above zero, you're going to pull out more than that initial 4000 and with each passing here, you're going to adjust your withdrawals, you continue to take those inflation adjusted withdrawals each year, regardless of what happens with the markets or how high inflation is for at least that's how it worked in the original research, so that's a basic overview of a withdrawal strategy like the 4% rule, but just as one example of something that might be missing in that analysis because it's pretty over simplified is taxes.

So for example, are you pulling money out of pre tax accounts that you're going to go income tags on like a traditional IRA, or are you pulling from taxable brokerage account or Roth accounts? They wouldn't necessarily have as much tax, so depending on where the money comes from, that 4000 or 40000, if you have a million dollars is going to offer you more spending money or less…

Now again, at a 40000 income, the taxes might not be too burdensome, but you need to know that there are probably some taxes due, so that's going to affect your budget, another issue with withdrawal rates or the 4% rule, for example, is that you might not spend as much as you could, and that might mean you're missing out on opportunities, making memories or doing things you want to do, or retiring at a later date then you need it to… Historically, there were quite a few runs where you ended up with a lot more money than you started out with, so we assume you started with 1 million dollars, you did a 4% withdrawal rate, and you had more than 2 million at the end of your life, 45% of the time, your money doubled over your retirement years, or in some cases, you might have died with more than 5 million.

That's great if your goal is to give money away at death, but if your goal is to maximize your enjoyment of your assets during life, then a simplified withdraw rate might not let you do that. This would be a perfect time to mention that past performance does not guarantee future results, and this is just a short video, so friendly reminder, please do a lot more research before you make any decisions, decide to take any action or not, because this stuff is really important. So please read that carefully, and by the way, I'm Justin Pritchard and I help people plan for retirement and invest for the future, so in the description below, you're going to find more resources on this topic, some discussions about withdrawal rates and some calculators that help you work with withdrawal rates, if you want to go that route and look at some alternatives, I think you'll find all of that helpful.

When you make a more robust income plan, you might have a withdrawal rate that varies over time, so it might start relatively high, perhaps you're withdrawing at a relatively high rate in the early years of retirement and spending down some assets, and that might be something you do as you wait for Social Security benefits to start, perhaps you're going to delay Social Security, maybe you want that time to make a little bit of room so that you can do Roth conversions or fill up some tax brackets, or maybe you're just trying to maximize what your Social Security benefit is, there's some really good reasons for doing this, for example, maybe there's going to be a survivor involved, and you want to make sure that that benefit is as high as possible because once one spouse dies, for example, the surviving spouse would be left with just one Social Security income, so perhaps it's important to have that be as high as possible, and here's an example of how that could look, so we can just check somebody's withdrawal rate.

And in this case, they aren't going to start Social Security until age 70, so they have started out with a relatively high rate here, then it drops off as other income sources kick in, they're in the low threes here for a while, and then when Long term care expenses come up, you're back to a high withdrawal. We can also see how it looks kind of visually with the asset levels, so again, at retirement here, maybe they're going to wait until 70, they're going to spend down some assets for a while, and then that curve… And by the way, this can be kind of nerve racking to watch your assets decrease over time, but if you have a plan in place and you've got those retirement income sources that can perhaps help you have the confidence they, again, here spending down assets until the Social Security and pension sources kick in, and then the withdrawal rate decreases dramatically, now, not everybody has a pension plus Social Security, that's actually going to help them increase their assets once those income sources kick in, but some people are fortunate, and that's what retirement looks like for them.

One other issue with withdrawal rates is that your spending can change over time, so as just one example, maybe you're going to buy a car periodically, and so that spikes your withdrawal rate every couple of years, so how do you deal with that? Or if we look at research on retiree spending, not everybody spends a flat inflation adjusted amount each year, in fact, for some retirees, you might have them spending at roughly inflation minus 1%, of course, that ignores those healthcare expenses which continue to increase at a pretty fast rate, probably faster than general inflation is a good way to model that, but other expenses might not increase, so if you own your home and you don't drive too much, for example, you might not be experiencing a lot of inflation. In fact, David Blanchett's research called the retirement spending smile actually shows retirees spending at roughly inflation minus 1%.

Or another way to look at this is your retirement spending stages. Sometimes people call this the go go, the slow go and the no go years. So right after you retire, you might be spending at a relatively high rate, these are your go go years, you've just finished working, you've saved all your life, you want to travel and have fun, and so you're going to do that while you're still young and healthy, but then you get into the slow go years, your spending might slow down a little bit, you've done a lot of the travel, you're spending more time just with friends or family or whatever the case may be, and then we get into the no go years where a lot of your leisure and entertainment recreation spending are going to decrease, but that healthcare spending ramps back up in the no go years, so if we're thinking of that in terms of withdrawal rates in the go go years, you're at a relatively high rate, slow go years, not quite as high, and the no go years, you're back into a relatively high rate, so I hope now you have a richer understanding of withdrawal rates.

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Retirement Planning: Are you Ready for Retirement? with Oak Harvest Retirement Success Plan

[Music] welcome to the retirement income show on Market Lane alongside the CEO and founder of Oak Harvest Financial Group that of course is Troy sharp Troy is a certified financial planner professional his team at Oak Harvest is incredible if you want to go to the website to learn more elk Harvest financialgroup.com Oak Harvest fg.com works as well a lot of great information on the website you can learn about Jared Kinney Ryan Kenny you can learn about Chris Paris Jessica canella the whole team there's just a phenomenal team Oak Harvest financialgroup.com and of course you can always go to the YouTube channel there's over 300 videos on there about any topic you can think about in the financial world the retirement world uh it's phenomenal and there's no cost you subscribe you'll know when all the new ones are out but there's no cost to any of that YouTube check out Troy sharp and Oak Harvest Troy's office located at 921 oral City Way I-10 and Bunker Hill they they are here for you if you need help they would love to help they just don't know if they can help until you reach out and you can do that just by giving them a call 800-822-64-34-800-822-64 34 today we're going to be talking the retirement success plan Troy is going to explain what this is and it's the process so it's about investment planning income planning tax planning health planning Estate Planning and they all go together Social Security and Medicare are in there as well you know you've done this for a long time you sat down with a lot of people so you kind of understand the common mistakes the common things that we Overlook as well this will be good going through the retirement success plan how are you going to inform us today of this retirement success plan well just like we have as humans we have basic needs right we have that hierarchy of we need shelter we need food we need security in retirement or once we get to retirement people have their the same concerns the same questions we all have the same let's call it fears do we have enough you know can you retire when can you retire how much can you spend when you do retire without the fear of running out of money we all want to pay less tax right the government can get their fair share but not a not a penny more and whatever that fair share is it's it's defined differently based on your plan so if you take the government's plan there they want to get as much from you as possible and the tax law is set up in a way that if you don't plan for taxes in retirement oftentimes we see people in situations where if they keep doing what they're doing 200 300 500 800 we sat down with a client prospective client recently and we're doing this analysis it was well over a million dollars in taxes if he kept doing the his way of things the way that his advisor had him doing it in regards to his income plan and tax plan and retirement well there was no tax plan obviously but his income plan was going to lead create this domino effect of his tax bill being over the course of time over the course of 25 years over a million dollars in estimated taxes that he was going to pay that he simply didn't have to pay if he went about a different approach the approach that I'm going to talk with you about today as far as step three of our retirement success process the tax planning aspect so just like we have basic needs as human beings we have basic concerns when it comes to retirement and we've created the structured process and that's the beautiful thing about the retirement success plan is it's a plan that is something that is actionable but it's also living and breathing it's something we will review with you throughout the year once you're a client but it's also a process and we believe in structure here we're really big on structure and process and that keeps us organized that keeps us on schedule and that keeps us ahead of the planning curve in order to do the things that we promise for everyone that's entrusted so much to us and I'm talking about your retirement you worked for 30 years 40 years 50 years in some cases and you save up whether it's five hundred thousand dollars or five million or 50 million you need a team of people that of course are knowledgeable but before education and certifications and designations and training and experience first and foremost you need somebody that cares okay if you start there with someone that's a fiduciary and not just you can be a fiduciary and still do the wrong thing I've seen it for years in the industry where fiduciary advisors still sell mutual funds that have high fees and commissions and they can make justifications for why they're selling them or why they think you're they're in your best interest I don't believe that they are personally um we would never put someone into a mutual fund that is charging a five percent front end commission and then you know has two or two and a half percent of hidden fees and we've seen that for for years coming from fiduciary firms fiduciary advisors so you start with from Ground Zero are you working with somebody who truly cares who's truly passionate about retirement so with that philosophy in mind that's the foundation of of what we look at when we hire people here at Oak Harvest Financial Group you could have all the designations in the world all the education all the experience but if if you're arrogant if you're not humble if you're not hungry if you're not continuing strive to be continuing to strive to be a better person we don't want you to work here because that foundational element do you care about the people that you're working with on a human level if that's not there then you know we don't want any part of that type of person I don't care how much you produce how what the metrics are when it comes to how we measure advisor performance so that's the foundation now once you have someone that cares you want a structured process in place to deal with those big questions that you have the big concerns that you have so do you have enough yet it's not just a yes or no question it's a function of how much do you spend what is your health situation if you're healthy yes of course you're going to live longer most likely but are you planning for the increased medical costs in increased probability of needing long-term care or Assisted Living these are aspects that healthier people do have to absolutely be concerned about those that are less healthy it's less likely you're going to have a two or three year four or five year stay in a long-term care facility or need nurses in the home so when we talk about do you have enough and can you retire these are all the answers to those questions are function of how much do you spend what is your longevity what is your health situation your of course your family history um but not only that it's what are we doing with the other aspects of this process meaning the income planning side the tax planning side what about the health care side you know are you retiring before Medicare do we need to look at some type of Health Care planning that qualifies you to receive a subsidy so you're not paying two thousand dollars a month for both spouses for health insurance that maybe we get it down to 400 a month or 600 a month or maybe no out-of-pocket costs whatsoever for health insurance premiums you can do that with proper planning but you need the right type of asset structure meaning if you have all your money in retirement accounts this is where tax planning comes in when you take money out that goes on to your 1040 your tax return and then you probably aren't going to qualify for as big a subsidy as if you had money saved and non-ira accounts so this the structuring of income planning tax planning Health Care planning and then of course the estate side of things this is all what the oak Harvest retirement success process the retirement success plan is and that's what you receive when you become a client it is a very clear and structured process that we go through but then it's also a plan that is living and breathing and we're making adjustments as time goes on tax law changes economic conditions change goals change your spending levels will change it retirement is and we've only learned this you know from years and years of experience the best delayed plans we can't just set him and forget them you know plans need constant monitoring just like a plant or a garden or you know a human being so the retirement success process we're going to get into today to to today we're going to focus on the first three steps the first step is risk management and investment planning next step is income planning so income planning is social security when do we take that it's not just based on the math which it does play a role but when we start to look at are you a conservative investor okay versus an aggressive investor investor that plays into the Social Security election decision of course your Health and Longevity plays in market conditions okay are we in a recession when you're thinking about taking social security are your accounts down 20 30 percent or did we have a really really good year last year and it looks like we're gonna have a good year this year all of these factors kind of tie in to that income planning component as well as many other we're going to talk about and then the big one we're gonna we're gonna get into is tax planning that's step three of the retirement success process and when you start to understand that retirement is a set of dominoes when you're young you work you put the kids through school you deal with traffic you deal with bosses you deal with if you run your own business all the headaches that come with that you deal with so many different things money is really really simple it's life that's complicated in the accumulation phase once we get to retirement now life gets a little bit more simple it's the money it's the decisions you have to make and the realization that every single decision you make how you invest the portfolio impacts not not only how much income you can take today but how much income you can take down the road the sequence of returns risk based on how you've invested sequence of returns is if the market goes down and you're also taking money out you exacerbate that downturn in the market because there's no paychecks coming in you're you're pulling money out and losing in the market so these decisions every single one that you make it's a domino effect it impacts everything else it impacts the tax plan it impacts the income strategy can impact the health care it can impact absolutely the estate plan so we walk you through this process so we have a plan in place we call it the retirement success plan and the goal is for you to have security first and foremost but what I find most often is the outcome is that people feel more comfortable they feel more secure and they're able to enjoy retirement a bit more because they've they have a plan in place that addresses all these certain needs but also through the continual monitoring and adjusting and conversations one thing I love about our process is when someone comes to us and we have that first meeting where it's just get to know you you know no pressure no obligation no cost we get the information we do an analysis between that first and that second visit and then when we come back on that second visit you actually get to see what it's like to be a client at Oak Harvest Financial Group because that second visit with us we're starting to go through the foundation of a financial plan we're starting to discuss the decisions that you have to make not only this year but in the future so that's almost exactly what it's like to have an annual review with us or a semi-annual review with us so I love that about our process is that you get to see before you ever decide to become a client what it's like to actually be a client when we have up on the big television screen all of the information the choices you have to make the impact of making different decisions how it impacts your taxes how it impacts your income how it impacts your account balances when we do a sensitivity analysis and and show you okay this outcome in the market and this outcome for income decisions versus this one here are the possible outcomes for those choices and that those combination of choices so you get to see what it's like to actually be a client just through our normal process of going through that first second and third visit with us many Engineers it takes a little bit longer than that sometimes it's four or five visits but our goal is to Simply provide value we want to make deposits in your life we want to provide value and you know people see that value and they say you know what I think you guys could be a great part of my financial team my retirement team and yes I want to work with you Troy so if that's you if you don't have a retirement success plan if you don't have a tax plan income plan if you don't understand the guard rails what I'm going to get into in this next segment as far as risk management in retirement give us a call we want you to leave a message there's no one here working on the weekends if you're watching this on YouTube if you're listening to this later and it's during the week sure give us a call someone will pick up but we want to have a conversation just to see what's important to you who you are if you're a good fit for what we do and of course you can ask questions to see if we're a good fit for you and then we'll schedule that first visit there's no cost no obligation we can do it through Zoom we can do it in person at the office right here at I-10 and Bunker Hill in Memorial City and that first visit we'll have a cup of coffee a glass of water and just get to know each other and if we are a good fit at that point we'll get that second scheduled we'll do the analysis that I talked about and we'll walk you through that retirement success process so you can have those big questions answered do you have enough can you retire and how do you pay less tax 1-800-822-6434 1-800-822-6434 Oak Harvest Financial Group check out the YouTube channel check out the website Oak Harvest Financial Group so when you think about this this is what I think you should really like about it it's you're working with the team at Oak Harvest for your retirement right to coming up with that retirement success plan you're the CEO it's your retirement look at Troy and the team at Oak Harvest as your Chief Financial Officer here to help guide you you're going to make the decisions they're going to give you the choices right and it's up to you because it is your retirement it's your hopes and dreams your bucket list and all of that it's really important though that they understand your feelings your thoughts your hopes your dreams it is about you so you've got to talk to them and they're here to listen and they're here to help again that number is 800-822-6434 risk management how important is it what actually is it Troy we'll explain when we come back this is the retirement income show with Troy sharp out of Oak Harvest Financial Group back right after this investment advisory services offered through Oak Harvest Financial Group LLC Oak Harbor's Financial Group is an independent Financial Services firm that helps people create retirement strategies using a variety of insurance and investment products investing involves risk including the loss of principal any references to protection benefits or lifetime income generally refer to fixed Insurance products never Securities or investment products insurance and annuity product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company Oak Harbor's Financial Group LLC is not permitted to offer a No statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice you should speak to a qualified professional before making any decisions about your personal situation we are not affiliated with the US government or any governmental agency this radio show is a paid placement foreign [Music]

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Step 1 The Retirement Success Process: Investment and Risk Management

foreign welcome back to the retirement income show I'm Mark Elliott here with the CEO and founder of Oak Harvest Finance group we're talking about the retirement success plan once it's in place it's not done it's not finished it's always changing and evolving with you and your life so it's really important to get this in place to have a plan give you more confidence and and be more comfortable in retirement with maybe hopefully not so much stress about where you are again that number is 800-822-6434 to learn more 800-822-6434 Troy's breaking down what is exactly the retirement success plan so it starts with the investment plan then it's the income plan then it's a tax plan then it's a health plan and then it is the estate plan so I want to kind of tie together why that sequence is is important just briefly but if you don't understand if you don't have a proper risk management structure in place obviously you open the potential for losses beyond your willingness to stay the course now it's not just stay the course with the Investments it's stay the course with your retirement success plan with your financial plan so we have to Define what those guard rails are first this is the process of understanding where your risk limitations are so if you think about you're going down a highway and of course you have guard rails on each side and if you go off the highway those guard rails are there to protect you from going into the opposing Direction on the freeway now in retirement when we're talking about managing risk when we can identify these emotional guardrails so are you willing to see and I and I'd like to Define risk in terms of dollars not percentages and I'll tell you why in a minute but let's say you have a million dollars saved for retirement if all that money is in your 401k first and foremost we have to realize that it's not really a million dollars because every dollar in there is tax deferred so we have to understand we're going to address that as part of this process but when we talk about risk we have to understand that not all of those dollars are yours you have a junior partner on that account we want to keep them a junior partner we don't want Uncle Sam to become a senior partner or a majority share owner of your retirement account but just understanding that that not all of that money is yours that you do have a junior partner in that account it ties into this risk management discussion a little bit so when we talk about risk in terms of dollars are you willing to see your account go down two hundred thousand just a question could be yes could be no it doesn't there is no right or wrong answer but by asking these questions we can start to Define where your emotional guard rails are because the number one thing that you can do when it comes to ruining a financial plan or a retirement plan is to have more risks so your accounts go down more than you can mentally tolerate emotionally withstand and then you sell get out sit in cash for two or three years miss the rebound and now you're you're in a you know you're in a bad bad bad spot I can't tell you I mean we've been through this so many times with clients and conversations about you know Troy I've been watching the news I think we're going into recession we need to get out of the market we need to do this or my accounts are down 10 or 20 or when covid hit we there's a plan for for a proper plan accounts for the markets being down 20 or 30 percent so when we talk about risk management and we're asking you these questions the reason why is because we're already planning for recessions we're planning for potential Market crashes this is part of life okay we cannot avoid these things unless we completely stay in cash and if that's the case you might as well bury the money in the backyard and just spend whatever you can and hope you don't run out and eat rice and beans for for for retirement and that's not how most of our clients that's not how most of you want to spend you know after working for an entire career you want to spend your life so are you okay with a 200 000 decline by the way which is 20 and the reason why I Define it in terms of dollars is because a long time ago I had a client come in well it was a prospective client at the time and like most financial advisors we would talk about it in terms of percentages and and we said are you okay with a 10 or 20 decline he said you know what 20 is pretty much my Max and he had around a million dollars so then I I just happened to put it in terms of dollars and I said okay so if your accounts go down two hundred thousand dollars you're okay with that and he said he said no Troy he said I would fire you on the spot and so that you know for me it connected a Big Dot It was kind of a big evolution in my career when I was younger because I realized I'm a financial guy I do this every single day I think in terms of percentages and statistics and and but most people think in terms of dollars so when we ask you that question you say yes I'm okay with a 200 000 or 100 000 or maybe it's not even close to that or maybe it's much much much more what that does for us is it helps to Define what type of portfolio we need to construct so emotionally there's a small probability that it is going to hit your your downside guard ramp and if we can go through retirement and not ever hit that downside guard rail well there's a very good chance from our experience that you're going to stay the course you're going to stick with your plan and if you can stick with your plan you have a much higher probability of success in retirement this is why we call it the retirement success process this is why we call it a retirement success plan this is what we want to deliver to you so now I said I wanted to talk a little bit about the sequence and why risk management in investment planning comes first if we don't and in most simple terms if if your money let's say you have a million bucks and you never had to take anything out if you average four percent versus nine percent at higher rates of return you obviously can expect your accounts to grow to a larger value that means the income planning is impacted that also means that now your tax planning is impacted so we can't build an income plan or a tax plan without first understanding an estimated reasonable expected return for a combination of Securities inside a portfolio so step one has to be this risk management discussion which then can lead us to the investment construction of your portfolio which then gives us a pretty good idea of expected return upside downside deviation so we can now start talking about income planning we can actually project and do a sensitivity analysis on tax planning based on different account levels let me break that down for you before we get into the tax planning section later on the show if you have a million dollars in your IRA you are forced to start taking a certain percentage out it's around four percent at age 72 but as you get to be 74 76 77 you're required to distribute a larger and larger percentage so if your million grows to 1.5 you take let's say four percent of that out that's a that's a number that is less than if your IRA grows to 2 million so the more aggressive your portfolio is or the higher expected return the more we should anticipate that require minimum distribution being a larger number that rmd is the amount you're forced to take out and pay taxes on we've seen clients I I'd like to phrase this for prospective clients because we address this with you as a client this is part of the retirement success process and the retirement success plan but so often when someone comes in here and they've done a pretty good job saving they have eight hundred thousand they have a million they have two or three million when we start to do this analysis if you don't address this tax problem and it is a tax problem it can be you know a tax nightmare for many of you those rmds when we get out to be 75 and 77 or 78 a hundred thousand hundred and fifty thousand two hundred thousand now you're taking that money out you're probably not spending that much on top of Social Security on top of any rental income or real estate income or pension or dividend or interest or any other income that you have outside of your retirement account and we've seen many people be in a much higher tax bracket and have much more income in their 80s than they ever had throughout their entire life up to that point and it's because of a lack of planning so that's what we're trying to get ahead of so we have to understand the risk structure of our portfolio and how we manage that risk so we can keep you on course we can keep you on schedule with your plan that then gives us an idea of a range of expected returns based on basic financial planning Concepts from there we can develop that income strategy and income is not just Social Security it's not just how much to take out don't get me started on the four percent rule but it is also from which accounts and then we get into the taxes so if you don't have a retirement success plan give us a call 1-800-822-6434 we're going to walk you through this process if you become a client you will have this plan in place that deals with risk Investments taxes income along with the rest of the retirement success plan 1-800-822-6434 Oak Harvest Financial Group check out the website check out the YouTube channel Oak Harvest Financial Group so we're talking about the retirement success plan Troy still got a lot to get to stay with us we're back in one minute investment advisory services offered through Oak Harvest Financial Group LLC Oak Harbor's Financial Group is an independent Financial Services firm that helps people create retirement strategies using a variety of insurance and investment products investing involves risk including the loss of principal any references to protection benefits or lifetime income generally refer to fixed Insurance products never Securities or investment products insurance and annuity product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company Oak Harbor's Financial Group LLC is not permitted to offer a No statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice you should speak to a qualified professional before making any decisions about your personal situation we are not affiliated with the US government or any governmental agency this radio show is a paid placement foreign [Music]

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Retirement: I’m 60 Years Old with $900K in Savings. Can I Retire Now? What is My Risk Capacity?

so you're 60 years old with nine hundred thousand dollars saved and the question is can you retire in today's video we're going to look at a few different decisions that could be made the impact those decisions have on the plan with the overall goal of not running out of money hi I'm Troy sharp CEO of Oak Harvest Financial Group a certified financial planner professional host of the retirement income show and a certified tax specialist in today's case study we're going to look at a situation that's not too dissimilar from what we normally encounter in our day-to-day operations here at Oak Harvest Financial Group so we have James who's 60 years old he comes in and he says Troy I want to spend about seventy thousand dollars and I'm just tired of working I want to to this year to be my last year so I want to spend seventy thousand dollars I think I'm going to live to about 90 years old pretty good health and I want this fifty thousand dollars to increase with inflation over the course of my retirement but for the first 10 years and what I hear you talk about in this go go spending phase I want to spend an additional 20 000 per year bringing that first 10 years of spending up to 70 000 per year then that go go spending goes away and then we have the inflation adjusted 50 000 to plan for from age 70 to age 90.

Hey just a brief Interruption here to ask you to subscribe to the channel now what that does for you is that puts us Oak Harvest Financial Group and all the content we produce in your little TV Guide so you have a much easier way to come back and find it later share this video with a friend or family member and also comment down below I love to respond to the comments now if you have any questions about your particular situation or you'd like to consider becoming a client of Oak Harvest feel free to reach out to us there's a link in the description below but you can always reach out to us and give us a call and have a conversation to see if we might be a good fit for each other James tells us that since he wants to retire as soon as possible he he thinks it makes sense to take Social Security the first time available so claiming at 62 a little more than two thousand dollars a month at twenty five thousand dollars per year he also has that nine hundred thousand dollars broken out to four 401K money of 700 Grand then 200 000 in a taxable account or what we call non-qualified outside of the retirement account very important to point out here that the tax characteristic of these two accounts and the Investments inside them and the interest and dividends and the withdrawals from them are taxed differently so that's part of an overall tax plan now James also has a home that's completely paid for and worth six hundred thousand dollars but he's told me that I don't want to use this to fund any of my retirement goals I've lived in this home for a long time I want to stay in the home but we know from a planning perspective that we do have that in our back pocket if it's needed down the road so James's total net worth here is about 1.5 million looking at the paid off home of six hundred thousand the 700 Grand inside the 401K and the 200 000 of non-qualified or taxable account assets now as part of the process to understand where someone is and where they're trying to get to we have to understand how is the portfolio currently allocated so James tells us that Troy I know I've wanted to retire so I've been investing aggressively and trying to get ahead of the game but here we are in 2022 and the markets have pulled back some so that double-edged sword is starting to kind of rear its rear its head but we see James's 93 stock so one of the questions that we have from an internal planning perspective is if we keep this same level of risk while we retire and start taking income out of the portfolio what does that do for what we call the risk capacity or the portfolio's ability to take on risk while Distributing income in the retirement phase so we have to look at the guard rails and guard rails are essentially a statistical calculation of probabilities of the portfolio returning this much on the high side and a good year and this much on the downside in a bad year if these guard rails are too far apart and we're taking in income out if we run into a bad couple of years that bump up against that bottom guardrail but we significantly increase the risk of running out of money so part of the analysis of the planning is is this an appropriate guard rail for this type of portfolio given the desired income level so with everything we've looked at so far the question is if James continues doing what he's currently doing and retires with the desired spending level the assets that he's accumulated living until age 90 what is the probability that he has success well it comes in at about 61 so that's probably not a good retirement number it's something we want to see if we can work to improve so I'm going to pull up the what if analysis here and start to look at some of these different decisions that we could make and see if we can get this probability to increase okay so now we have the what if analysis where we have two different columns up here on the board right now they're identical we're going to keep this one the same as the base case everything that we just went through but now we're going to start to change some of these variables to see what the impact those decisions have on the overall retirement plan and this is much more of an art at this stage than it is a science because we want to start to explore different scenarios and then see what is most comfortable for you once you understand the impact of these different decisions you can take some time to kind of way think about them weigh the the pros and cons and now we're starting to work together to craft you a retirement plan that gives us increased probabilities of success but also something that you feel very very comfortable with so the first couple of options we have which are the most simple and usually have the biggest impact on the plan is that we can either work longer or spend less so James says no I don't want to spend less I have a specific plan I want to get my RV I want to travel the country I want to play some golf I've done my budget I need to spend that 70 000 for the first 10 years so the first thing we'll look at is the impact of working another couple of years so I've changed the age here to 63 as far as Retirement the only variable we're going to change at this time I don't want to change too many variables at once I want to see the impact of different decisions how they impact the overall plan okay so that gives us a bit of an increase but the next thing I want to look at here is social security so Social Security is a very valuable source of guaranteed lifetime income first it's an increasing stream of income it increases with inflation but two no matter what happens with the stock market that income is always going to be coming in so instead of taking the 62 and having a significant reduction in the lifetime income that we receive because I don't want to change spending we still have the 50 and 20 in here I want to change the Social Security from taking it a 62 to taking it at full retirement age okay so changing the Social Security election day gets us up to 76 we're definitely moving in the right direction here after a conversation with James and he realizing that you know what I do feel really secure with that increased social security income because if the market doesn't cooperate I know I'm still going to have that much higher income later in life so that would lead us down the road to say okay let's look at adding more guaranteed lifetime income if we can get your Baseline income to cover a majority of your spending needs then we don't need the market to perform necessarily as well later in life so now we want to look at the impact of adding more guaranteed income to the plan which has the effect of providing more security later in life because if the markets don't cooperate we know we have a certain level of income being deposited every single month no matter how long we live so if you go to our website here it's Oak harvestfinancialgroup.com com we have up top an income writer quote where this is constantly searching for the highest amounts of guaranteed lifetime income that are available in the marketplace simply input the variables here so in Texas age 60 Ira money income starts we're going to start looking at seven years here and I know the dollar amount I would want to put in 300 000.

The good news here is you can input any of these different variables we don't ask for your information so it's a calculator tool that you can play with on your own Single Life payout and we get quote okay so here's the output screen we have all of these different companies over here when you see the same company twice it's because that company offers multiple different products with the same income Rider so an income writer is just an addendum or an attachment to a contract that guarantees no matter what the stock market does a certain amount of Lifetime income based on the specifications you input so about thirty three thousand dollars here so that's about 11 percent of the initial deposit with that income starting in year seven this is why we call it a deferred income annuity because it gets a guaranteed growth to calculate a guaranteed lifetime income that you then would incorporate into your plan so in this what-if analysis we come down here we I've already inputted so three hundred thousand dollars and then we just calculate these scenarios okay now we're up to 87 percent here so now things are starting to look a little bit better let's make a couple of different adjustments here because remember when I talked about the guard rails that's too aggressive of a portfolio given the income need especially in the beginning years but now that we've added some deferred income into the plan the portfolio's capacity for risk increases later in life and all that means is because there's so much income coming in the portfolio can withstand a bit more volatility later once Social Security and the Deferred income annuity kick on because you're needing to take less from the portfolio so let's make a couple more adjustments here so after retirement we don't want to keep the the current investment strategy let's get a little bit more conservative here go from an aggressive plan to something a little bit more conservative and then you know what let's also say now that we're starting to move in the right direction instead of retiring at 63 what happens if we retire at 62.

Get your retired one year earlier than some of these other numbers okay now we're at 83 percent retiring at 62. I want to look at one more variable here because you may want to get a part-time job James may want to be a starter at a golf course maybe he wants to work in the church and he can get ten thousand or fifteen thousand dollars a year maybe just wants to work two three months out of the year so the next thing I want to look at is if we've done all this now what happens if during this first 10 years of retirement he decides he wants to work three months out of the year or maybe just a part-time job and work one or two days a week so instead of needing twenty thousand dollars per year we just need another ten thousand let's say from the portfolio so really that's only earning ten thousand dollars extra in retirement income you could do that driving Uber many different choices there you know what I'm just going to decrease this no I'll leave it there now with James deciding to maybe work part-time here to reduce that spending need in the first 10 years let's see if we can also get them retired at 61.

Okay so now James has decided that working part-time and hey we're talking 10 grand here so this isn't a lot of money now I want to see what happens if we go back to the original goal that James had of retiring as soon as possible at age 61. so we're going to change this back to his original goal 61 calculate all scenarios and now this gets us up to 94 so we started at 61 if where James was originally at whenever he came in if he kept doing whatever he was already doing we got him up to 94 percent here okay I want to take a minute before we finish the final Concept in this video to discuss some of the adjustments we've made so far to get James from 61 to 94 so first and foremost we adjusted the Social Security election strategy secondly we added that deferred income annuity thirdly James has decided to work part-time to generate ten thousand dollars per year in those beginning years to help reduce the burden of taking out an additional twenty thousand dollars of retirement income and then finally we've brought the guardrails in on the Investment Portfolio which helps to eliminate very bad outcomes that could happen with his original 93 allocation to stocks we haven't totally went to bonds or cash we've just brought those guard rails in by reducing our Equity exposure in the beginning years of retirement we can always adjust that later now last thing I want to do is look at what we call the combined details all of these things together in a spreadsheet just so we can see how these different pieces are working together and then look at what we call different Monte Carlo analyzes so now I want to share with you some of the individual trial analysis that we run just like we would for a normal client to help identify not only where the weak spots are in the portfolio but how these different decisions that we're making impact the overall client balance and it's not just looking at what we call an average rate of return it's looking at a thousand different simulations we're going to look at a couple here and the Order of the return so check out the video if you want to understand more about this concept you can click the link up above and the title of the video is how eleven percent average returns could destroy your retirement and that'll really get home that concept of it's not about what you average but it's about the order in which you realize returns over the course of your retirement during the day distribution phase so here we have this individual trial and we're gonna it's the median scenario out of a thousand different scenarios so I just want to go through this fairly quickly with you and based on some of the adjustments to the portfolio we see the investment return column here so all of this I think averaged out to I think it was about four and a half percent gross returns I can go back and double check that in a second but you see it's it's never four four four four four four four four or six six six six this is what it looks like in the real world so James retires essentially the beginning of 2023 we have the Deferred income annuity clicking on here we've changed Social Security to click on here so if we add these two together come heck or high water there will be minimally 74 000 almost 75 000 deposited into his bank account every single year now if we look at the retirement need it's about sixty one thousand dollars plus the discretionary Go-Go spending is about twelve thousand two ninety nine so about seventy three thousand dollars but what this does is because we're getting so much from these two sources it really reduces the need for the portfolio to perform and if we kind of go out go on out through retirement you see Social Security isn't increasing income so later in life now we're up to about 89 almost 90 000 of income and our ninety thousand dollars inflation adjusted retirement income need is covered by the amount of guaranteed lifetime income that we have in the portfolio which then allows our portfolio balances to stabilize because we're not needing it to support our lifestyle later in life so this is just one example here but we see the ending portfolio value even though it spends down a little bit in the beginning years okay it starts to stabilize because the income provided from the decisions that we've made put us in a situation where we don't have to withdraw so much from the portfolio Okay so now I want to look at a different trial and just to confirm here the 500th scenario was an average of 4.6 but you saw the different order of those returns and how we actually got to 4.6 okay so if we slide this up here let's assume it's a pretty bad scenario this is going to let me change it here find a worse return okay so this brings the average down to 3.05 and we still see in bar graph form here that the portfolio value still is stabilized and it's primarily because that change in the Social Security decision and adding the Deferred income annuity it still puts us into that position to where if the market doesn't perform we have enough income from guaranteed sources that we're not dependent on the stock market to provide us income in retirement especially later in life when we typically are more conservative and most people that I've worked with don't have the same stomach at 80 or 82 to stay invested in Big Market pullbacks as they did when they were 52 or 62.

Now what I want to show you is the comparison to what we just looked at in the individual trial analysis to the original plan that came in at 61 percent with all the original inputs so if James just wanted to retire not go see anyone make any adjustments I want to show you what that looks like on the individual trial analysis so remember in this scenario we kept Social Security at 62 no job so the spending stayed at seventy thousand twenty thousand was that go go spending no change to the portfolio so we still have the aggressive portfolio which brings in the possibility of some pretty bad outcomes and no deferred income annuity here to help stabilize the income generation later in life as well as the volatility impact on the portfolio so when we when we look at this so here we go um had James has a 900 000.

You see we have none of the annuity income here Social Security starts out at about 26 000 for him a little more than two thousand a month now look at the investment returns here because it's a more aggressive portfolio the range the guard rails are increased here and then finally the spending we have the fifty thousand plus twenty thousand increasing for inflation with the Go-Go lasting 10 years so in the first 10 years of retirement we see things are going pretty well even at this spending level because we have some pretty good returns in here even though we have a couple bad years but what happens is the income because of inflation the income need increases later in life and we see it really just takes a couple of bad years here minus 21 minus 12 we go from a million to 755 and then it's pretty much all downhill from there in this particular scenario running out of income except for Social Security which is now only up to about forty four thousand dollars per year compared to the other plan with the Deferred Social Security so full retirement age and the Deferred income annuity we were at I wanted to say it was around 85 88 000 um of income not dependent on the stock market here we're only at 45 in the mid 80s so that means we have to take more out of the portfolio so it's more susceptible to bad returns later in retirement now the big takeaway here is this is what a good retirement planner does it's not necessarily about the investment returns it's about determining how much money you should have in the market when you should take Social Security we didn't even get into taxes here additional benefits could be provided through tax planning but what you should do with taxes and identifying those spending goals and those needs in order to get you retired and stay retired and then staying connected to this plan over time that's what a good retirement advisor does it's not about outperforming the market it's about finding a plan that gets you and keeps you retired just a brief reminder here to subscribe to the channel now what that does is that puts us in your TV Guide here on YouTube so it doesn't cost anything but if you subscribe to the channel you can come back to us much more easily down the road make sure to comment down below and also share this video with a friend or family member that you think could benefit from what we're talking about today [Music] foreign

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Retirement: I’m 60 Years Old with $900K in Savings. Can I Retire Now? What is My Risk Capacity?

so you're 60 years old with nine hundred thousand dollars saved and the question is can you retire in today's video we're going to look at a few different decisions that could be made the impact those decisions have on the plan with the overall goal of not running out of money hi I'm Troy sharp CEO of Oak Harvest Financial Group a certified financial planner professional host of the retirement income show and a certified tax specialist in today's case study we're going to look at a situation that's not too dissimilar from what we normally encounter in our day-to-day operations here at Oak Harvest Financial Group so we have James who's 60 years old he comes in and he says Troy I want to spend about seventy thousand dollars and I'm just tired of working I want to to this year to be my last year so I want to spend seventy thousand dollars I think I'm going to live to about 90 years old pretty good health and I want this fifty thousand dollars to increase with inflation over the course of my retirement but for the first 10 years and what I hear you talk about in this go go spending phase I want to spend an additional 20 000 per year bringing that first 10 years of spending up to 70 000 per year then that go go spending goes away and then we have the inflation adjusted 50 000 to plan for from age 70 to age 90.

Hey just a brief Interruption here to ask you to subscribe to the channel now what that does for you is that puts us Oak Harvest Financial Group and all the content we produce in your little TV Guide so you have a much easier way to come back and find it later share this video with a friend or family member and also comment down below I love to respond to the comments now if you have any questions about your particular situation or you'd like to consider becoming a client of Oak Harvest feel free to reach out to us there's a link in the description below but you can always reach out to us and give us a call and have a conversation to see if we might be a good fit for each other James tells us that since he wants to retire as soon as possible he he thinks it makes sense to take Social Security the first time available so claiming at 62 a little more than two thousand dollars a month at twenty five thousand dollars per year he also has that nine hundred thousand dollars broken out to four 401K money of 700 Grand then 200 000 in a taxable account or what we call non-qualified outside of the retirement account very important to point out here that the tax characteristic of these two accounts and the Investments inside them and the interest and dividends and the withdrawals from them are taxed differently so that's part of an overall tax plan now James also has a home that's completely paid for and worth six hundred thousand dollars but he's told me that I don't want to use this to fund any of my retirement goals I've lived in this home for a long time I want to stay in the home but we know from a planning perspective that we do have that in our back pocket if it's needed down the road so James's total net worth here is about 1.5 million looking at the paid off home of six hundred thousand the 700 Grand inside the 401K and the 200 000 of non-qualified or taxable account assets now as part of the process to understand where someone is and where they're trying to get to we have to understand how is the portfolio currently allocated so James tells us that Troy I know I've wanted to retire so I've been investing aggressively and trying to get ahead of the game but here we are in 2022 and the markets have pulled back some so that double-edged sword is starting to kind of rear its rear its head but we see James's 93 stock so one of the questions that we have from an internal planning perspective is if we keep this same level of risk while we retire and start taking income out of the portfolio what does that do for what we call the risk capacity or the portfolio's ability to take on risk while Distributing income in the retirement phase so we have to look at the guard rails and guard rails are essentially a statistical calculation of probabilities of the portfolio returning this much on the high side and a good year and this much on the downside in a bad year if these guard rails are too far apart and we're taking in income out if we run into a bad couple of years that bump up against that bottom guardrail but we significantly increase the risk of running out of money so part of the analysis of the planning is is this an appropriate guard rail for this type of portfolio given the desired income level so with everything we've looked at so far the question is if James continues doing what he's currently doing and retires with the desired spending level the assets that he's accumulated living until age 90 what is the probability that he has success well it comes in at about 61 so that's probably not a good retirement number it's something we want to see if we can work to improve so I'm going to pull up the what if analysis here and start to look at some of these different decisions that we could make and see if we can get this probability to increase okay so now we have the what if analysis where we have two different columns up here on the board right now they're identical we're going to keep this one the same as the base case everything that we just went through but now we're going to start to change some of these variables to see what the impact those decisions have on the overall retirement plan and this is much more of an art at this stage than it is a science because we want to start to explore different scenarios and then see what is most comfortable for you once you understand the impact of these different decisions you can take some time to kind of way think about them weigh the the pros and cons and now we're starting to work together to craft you a retirement plan that gives us increased probabilities of success but also something that you feel very very comfortable with so the first couple of options we have which are the most simple and usually have the biggest impact on the plan is that we can either work longer or spend less so James says no I don't want to spend less I have a specific plan I want to get my RV I want to travel the country I want to play some golf I've done my budget I need to spend that 70 000 for the first 10 years so the first thing we'll look at is the impact of working another couple of years so I've changed the age here to 63 as far as Retirement the only variable we're going to change at this time I don't want to change too many variables at once I want to see the impact of different decisions how they impact the overall plan okay so that gives us a bit of an increase but the next thing I want to look at here is social security so Social Security is a very valuable source of guaranteed lifetime income first it's an increasing stream of income it increases with inflation but two no matter what happens with the stock market that income is always going to be coming in so instead of taking the 62 and having a significant reduction in the lifetime income that we receive because I don't want to change spending we still have the 50 and 20 in here I want to change the Social Security from taking it a 62 to taking it at full retirement age okay so changing the Social Security election day gets us up to 76 we're definitely moving in the right direction here after a conversation with James and he realizing that you know what I do feel really secure with that increased social security income because if the market doesn't cooperate I know I'm still going to have that much higher income later in life so that would lead us down the road to say okay let's look at adding more guaranteed lifetime income if we can get your Baseline income to cover a majority of your spending needs then we don't need the market to perform necessarily as well later in life so now we want to look at the impact of adding more guaranteed income to the plan which has the effect of providing more security later in life because if the markets don't cooperate we know we have a certain level of income being deposited every single month no matter how long we live so if you go to our website here it's Oak harvestfinancialgroup.com com we have up top an income writer quote where this is constantly searching for the highest amounts of guaranteed lifetime income that are available in the marketplace simply input the variables here so in Texas age 60 Ira money income starts we're going to start looking at seven years here and I know the dollar amount I would want to put in 300 000.

The good news here is you can input any of these different variables we don't ask for your information so it's a calculator tool that you can play with on your own Single Life payout and we get quote okay so here's the output screen we have all of these different companies over here when you see the same company twice it's because that company offers multiple different products with the same income Rider so an income writer is just an addendum or an attachment to a contract that guarantees no matter what the stock market does a certain amount of Lifetime income based on the specifications you input so about thirty three thousand dollars here so that's about 11 percent of the initial deposit with that income starting in year seven this is why we call it a deferred income annuity because it gets a guaranteed growth to calculate a guaranteed lifetime income that you then would incorporate into your plan so in this what-if analysis we come down here we I've already inputted so three hundred thousand dollars and then we just calculate these scenarios okay now we're up to 87 percent here so now things are starting to look a little bit better let's make a couple of different adjustments here because remember when I talked about the guard rails that's too aggressive of a portfolio given the income need especially in the beginning years but now that we've added some deferred income into the plan the portfolio's capacity for risk increases later in life and all that means is because there's so much income coming in the portfolio can withstand a bit more volatility later once Social Security and the Deferred income annuity kick on because you're needing to take less from the portfolio so let's make a couple more adjustments here so after retirement we don't want to keep the the current investment strategy let's get a little bit more conservative here go from an aggressive plan to something a little bit more conservative and then you know what let's also say now that we're starting to move in the right direction instead of retiring at 63 what happens if we retire at 62.

Get your retired one year earlier than some of these other numbers okay now we're at 83 percent retiring at 62. I want to look at one more variable here because you may want to get a part-time job James may want to be a starter at a golf course maybe he wants to work in the church and he can get ten thousand or fifteen thousand dollars a year maybe just wants to work two three months out of the year so the next thing I want to look at is if we've done all this now what happens if during this first 10 years of retirement he decides he wants to work three months out of the year or maybe just a part-time job and work one or two days a week so instead of needing twenty thousand dollars per year we just need another ten thousand let's say from the portfolio so really that's only earning ten thousand dollars extra in retirement income you could do that driving Uber many different choices there you know what I'm just going to decrease this no I'll leave it there now with James deciding to maybe work part-time here to reduce that spending need in the first 10 years let's see if we can also get them retired at 61.

Okay so now James has decided that working part-time and hey we're talking 10 grand here so this isn't a lot of money now I want to see what happens if we go back to the original goal that James had of retiring as soon as possible at age 61. so we're going to change this back to his original goal 61 calculate all scenarios and now this gets us up to 94 so we started at 61 if where James was originally at whenever he came in if he kept doing whatever he was already doing we got him up to 94 percent here okay I want to take a minute before we finish the final Concept in this video to discuss some of the adjustments we've made so far to get James from 61 to 94 so first and foremost we adjusted the Social Security election strategy secondly we added that deferred income annuity thirdly James has decided to work part-time to generate ten thousand dollars per year in those beginning years to help reduce the burden of taking out an additional twenty thousand dollars of retirement income and then finally we've brought the guardrails in on the Investment Portfolio which helps to eliminate very bad outcomes that could happen with his original 93 allocation to stocks we haven't totally went to bonds or cash we've just brought those guard rails in by reducing our Equity exposure in the beginning years of retirement we can always adjust that later now last thing I want to do is look at what we call the combined details all of these things together in a spreadsheet just so we can see how these different pieces are working together and then look at what we call different Monte Carlo analyzes so now I want to share with you some of the individual trial analysis that we run just like we would for a normal client to help identify not only where the weak spots are in the portfolio but how these different decisions that we're making impact the overall client balance and it's not just looking at what we call an average rate of return it's looking at a thousand different simulations we're going to look at a couple here and the Order of the return so check out the video if you want to understand more about this concept you can click the link up above and the title of the video is how eleven percent average returns could destroy your retirement and that'll really get home that concept of it's not about what you average but it's about the order in which you realize returns over the course of your retirement during the day distribution phase so here we have this individual trial and we're gonna it's the median scenario out of a thousand different scenarios so I just want to go through this fairly quickly with you and based on some of the adjustments to the portfolio we see the investment return column here so all of this I think averaged out to I think it was about four and a half percent gross returns I can go back and double check that in a second but you see it's it's never four four four four four four four four or six six six six this is what it looks like in the real world so James retires essentially the beginning of 2023 we have the Deferred income annuity clicking on here we've changed Social Security to click on here so if we add these two together come heck or high water there will be minimally 74 000 almost 75 000 deposited into his bank account every single year now if we look at the retirement need it's about sixty one thousand dollars plus the discretionary Go-Go spending is about twelve thousand two ninety nine so about seventy three thousand dollars but what this does is because we're getting so much from these two sources it really reduces the need for the portfolio to perform and if we kind of go out go on out through retirement you see Social Security isn't increasing income so later in life now we're up to about 89 almost 90 000 of income and our ninety thousand dollars inflation adjusted retirement income need is covered by the amount of guaranteed lifetime income that we have in the portfolio which then allows our portfolio balances to stabilize because we're not needing it to support our lifestyle later in life so this is just one example here but we see the ending portfolio value even though it spends down a little bit in the beginning years okay it starts to stabilize because the income provided from the decisions that we've made put us in a situation where we don't have to withdraw so much from the portfolio Okay so now I want to look at a different trial and just to confirm here the 500th scenario was an average of 4.6 but you saw the different order of those returns and how we actually got to 4.6 okay so if we slide this up here let's assume it's a pretty bad scenario this is going to let me change it here find a worse return okay so this brings the average down to 3.05 and we still see in bar graph form here that the portfolio value still is stabilized and it's primarily because that change in the Social Security decision and adding the Deferred income annuity it still puts us into that position to where if the market doesn't perform we have enough income from guaranteed sources that we're not dependent on the stock market to provide us income in retirement especially later in life when we typically are more conservative and most people that I've worked with don't have the same stomach at 80 or 82 to stay invested in Big Market pullbacks as they did when they were 52 or 62.

Now what I want to show you is the comparison to what we just looked at in the individual trial analysis to the original plan that came in at 61 percent with all the original inputs so if James just wanted to retire not go see anyone make any adjustments I want to show you what that looks like on the individual trial analysis so remember in this scenario we kept Social Security at 62 no job so the spending stayed at seventy thousand twenty thousand was that go go spending no change to the portfolio so we still have the aggressive portfolio which brings in the possibility of some pretty bad outcomes and no deferred income annuity here to help stabilize the income generation later in life as well as the volatility impact on the portfolio so when we when we look at this so here we go um had James has a 900 000.

You see we have none of the annuity income here Social Security starts out at about 26 000 for him a little more than two thousand a month now look at the investment returns here because it's a more aggressive portfolio the range the guard rails are increased here and then finally the spending we have the fifty thousand plus twenty thousand increasing for inflation with the Go-Go lasting 10 years so in the first 10 years of retirement we see things are going pretty well even at this spending level because we have some pretty good returns in here even though we have a couple bad years but what happens is the income because of inflation the income need increases later in life and we see it really just takes a couple of bad years here minus 21 minus 12 we go from a million to 755 and then it's pretty much all downhill from there in this particular scenario running out of income except for Social Security which is now only up to about forty four thousand dollars per year compared to the other plan with the Deferred Social Security so full retirement age and the Deferred income annuity we were at I wanted to say it was around 85 88 000 um of income not dependent on the stock market here we're only at 45 in the mid 80s so that means we have to take more out of the portfolio so it's more susceptible to bad returns later in retirement now the big takeaway here is this is what a good retirement planner does it's not necessarily about the investment returns it's about determining how much money you should have in the market when you should take Social Security we didn't even get into taxes here additional benefits could be provided through tax planning but what you should do with taxes and identifying those spending goals and those needs in order to get you retired and stay retired and then staying connected to this plan over time that's what a good retirement advisor does it's not about outperforming the market it's about finding a plan that gets you and keeps you retired just a brief reminder here to subscribe to the channel now what that does is that puts us in your TV Guide here on YouTube so it doesn't cost anything but if you subscribe to the channel you can come back to us much more easily down the road make sure to comment down below and also share this video with a friend or family member that you think could benefit from what we're talking about today [Music] foreign

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Retirement: I’m 60 Years Old with $900K in Savings. Can I Retire Now? What is My Risk Capacity?

Hey simply a short Disturbance right here to ask you to subscribe to the channel now what that does for you is that places us Oak Harvest Financial Team and also all the material we produce in your little TV Overview so you have a much simpler means to come back and find it later share this video with a good friend or family participant and likewise comment down below I enjoy to respond to the comments now if you have any concerns concerning your particular circumstance or you'' d like to consider ending up being a client of Oak Harvest really feel complimentary to get to out to us there'' s a link in the summary listed below however you can always reach out to us and also provide us a call and have a discussion to see if we may be a great fit for each various other James informs us that given that he desires to retire as quickly as feasible he he thinks it makes sense to take Social Protection the very first time readily available so declaring at 62 a little even more than two thousand dollars a month at twenty five thousand dollars per year he additionally has that nine hundred thousand bucks damaged out to 4 401K money of 700 Grand after that 200 000 in a taxable account or what we call non-qualified outside of the retired life account extremely vital to aim out below that the tax characteristic of these two accounts and the Investments inside them as well as the rate of interest and also dividends as well as the withdrawals from them are taxed in different ways so that'' s component of a total tax obligation plan currently James also has a residence that ' s totally paid for and also worth six hundred thousand dollars yet he'' s told me that I put on'' t desire to utilize this to fund any of my retirement goals I'' ve lived in this residence for a long time I desire to remain in the residence however we understand from a preparation point of view that we do have that in our back pocket if it'' s needed down the roadway so James'' s overall web worth right here is about 1.5 million looking at the paid off house of 6 hundred thousand the 700 Grand inside the 401K and the 200 000 of non-qualified or taxable account properties currently as part of the process to comprehend where somebody is and where they'' re attempting to get to we have to understand just how is the profile currently alloted so James informs us that Troy I understand I'' ve wanted to retire so I'' ve been spending boldy and attempting to get in advance of the game yet here we are in 2022 as well as the markets have actually pulled back some so that double-edged sword is starting to kind of back its back its head yet we see James'' s 93 supply so one of the concerns that we have from an inner planning perspective is if we maintain this very same degree of threat while we retire and begin taking revenue out of the profile what does that do for what we call the risk capacity or the profile'' s ability to take on danger while Distributing revenue in the retired life phase so we have to look at the guard rails as well as guard rails are essentially an analytical calculation of likelihoods of the portfolio returning this much on the high side and also a great year and also this much on the drawback in a poor year if these guard rails are as well far apart and also we'' re taking in income out if we run right into a bad pair of years that bump up against that bottom guardrail however we dramatically raise the risk of running out of cash so part of the analysis of the planning is is this a proper guard rail for this kind of profile given the preferred revenue level so with every little thing we'' ve looked at so much the question is if James continues doing what he'' s presently doing and also retires with the desired investing degree the possessions that he'' s gathered living until age 90 what is the likelihood that he has success well it comes in at regarding 61 so that'' s possibly not a great retirement number it'' s something we want to see if we can function to boost so I ' m going to pull up the what if evaluation here as well as start to look at some of these different decisions that we might make and also see if we can obtain this probability to enhance all right so currently we have the what if evaluation where we have 2 different columns up right here on the board right currently they'' re similar we ' re going to maintain this one the same as the base situation every little thing that we simply went via however now we'' re going to begin to change some of these variables to see what the impact those choices have on the total retired life strategy and this is much even more of an art at this phase than it is a scientific research due to the fact that we want to begin to check out different situations and also then see what is most comfortable for you once you comprehend the effect of these various decisions you can take some time to kind of method assume about them evaluate the the pros and disadvantages and also now we'' re beginning to work with each other to craft you a retired life plan that provides us boosted likelihoods of success however also something that you feel really really comfy with so the first couple of choices we have which are the most easy as well as typically have the biggest effect on the strategy is that we can either function longer or invest much less so James states no I wear'' t desire to spend less I have a specific plan I desire to get my Recreational vehicle I desire to travel the nation I want to play some golf I'' ve done my spending plan I need to invest that 70 000 for the first 10 years so the initial thing we'' ll appearance at is the influence of functioning another couple of years so I'' ve altered the age right here to 63 as much as Retirement the only variable we'' re going to alter at this time I don'' t want to transform as well lots of variables at once I want to see the influence of different choices exactly how they affect the general plan alright so that gives us a little bit of an increase however the following point I desire to look at right here is social safety and security so Social Safety is a really beneficial resource of guaranteed lifetime earnings initially it'' s a raising stream of earnings it increases with rising cost of living but two no matter what takes place with the stock market that earnings is always going to be coming in so rather of taking the 62 and also having a substantial decrease in the life time income that we receive due to the fact that I don'' t want to transform investing we still have the 50 and also 20 in below I desire to transform the Social Safety and security from taking it a 62 to taking it at full retired life age all right so altering the Social Security election day gets us up to 76 we'' re certainly moving in the best instructions right here after a discussion with James as well as he understanding that you recognize what I do feel truly safe and secure with that enhanced social security revenue due to the fact that if the market doesn'' t comply I'recognize I ' m still going to have that a lot greater revenue later on in life so that would certainly lead us down the roadway to say fine let'' s look at adding extra guaranteed lifetime earnings if we can obtain your Baseline income to cover a majority of your spending requires after that we put on'' t require the market to carry out necessarily as well later in life so now we desire to look at the effect of adding more surefire earnings to the strategy which has the effect of providing even more safety later on in life because if the markets put on'' t coordinate we know we have a specific level of revenue being deposited every single month no matter exactly how long we live so if you go to our web site here it'' s Oak harvestfinancialgroup.com com we have up leading an income author quote where this is continuously looking for the highest possible amounts of assured life time earnings that are available in the industry simply input the variables here so in Texas age 60 Individual retirement account money income starts we ' re going to start looking at seven years below and I recognize the buck quantity I would certainly desire to place in 300 000. I want to look at one more variable right here since you may want to get a part-time job James might want to be a starter at a golf course perhaps he wants to work in the church and he can get ten thousand or fifteen thousand dollars a year maybe just desires to function 2 3 months out of the year so the next point I want to look at is if we ' ve done all this now what occurs if throughout this very first 10 years of retirement he chooses he desires to function 3 months out of the year or maybe simply a part-time work as well as work one or 2 days a week so instead of needing twenty thousand dollars per year we simply need another 10 thousand allowed ' s say from the profile so actually that ' s just gaining ten thousand bucks extra in retired life income you might do that driving Uber many various selections there you understand what I ' m just going to reduce this no I ' ll leave it there now with James deciding to perhaps work part-time right here to reduce that investing demand in the initial 10 years allow ' s see if we can likewise get them retired at 61. We'' re going to transform this back to his original objective 61 determine all situations as well as now this gets us up to 94 so we started at 61 if where James was originally at whenever he came in if he maintained doing whatever he was currently doing we obtained him up to 94 percent below alright I desire to take a minute before we finish the last Concept in this video clip to discuss some of the modifications we ' ve made so much to get James from 61 to 94 so initial and also primary we readjusted the Social Safety and security election strategy second of all we included that deferred earnings annuity thirdly James has chosen to work part-time to produce ten thousand dollars per year in those beginning years to help reduce the concern of taking out an extra twenty thousand dollars of retired life revenue and after that finally we ' ve brought the guardrails in on the Financial investment Portfolio which helps to remove extremely bad end results that might happen with his initial 93 allotment to supplies we haven ' t entirely went to bonds or cash we ' ve simply brought those guard rails in by decreasing our Equity direct exposure in the starting years of retirement we can constantly change that later on currently last thing I want to do is look at what we call the mixed information all of these things with each other in a spread sheet just so we'can see just how these different pieces are working with each other as well as after that look at what we call different Monte Carlo analyzes so currently I want to share with you some of the specific test evaluation that we run simply like we would certainly for a typical customer to assist recognize not only where the weak areas are in the profile however just how these different decisions that we ' re making impact the overall client equilibrium and it ' s not just looking at what we call a typical price of return it ' s looking at a thousand different simulations we ' re going to look at a pair right here and also the Order of the return so inspect out the video if you want to recognize even more'regarding this principle you can click the web link up above and also the title of the video clip is how eleven percent average returns could destroy your retirement as well as that ' ll really get home that idea of it ' s not about what you balance yet it ' s regarding the order in which you recognize returns over the course of your retired life during the day distribution phase so here we have this private test and also we ' re gon na it ' s the average circumstance out of a thousand different situations so I simply want to go'with this rather swiftly with you as well as based on some of the adjustments to the portfolio we see the financial investment return column below so all of this I think balanced out to I think it was concerning 4 and also a half percent gross returns I can go'back and also double check that in a 2nd yet you see it ' s it ' s never ever 4 4 4 four four 4 4 4 or 6 six 6 six this is what it looks like in the actual globe so James retires essentially the start of 2023 we have the Deferred income annuity clicking on right here we ' ve altered Social Protection to click on below so if we include these two with each other come hell or high water there'will certainly'be minimally 74 000 nearly 75 000 transferred into his bank account every solitary year currently if we look at the retirement require it ' s about sixty one thousand bucks plus the discretionary Go-Go investing is concerning twelve thousand two ninety nine so about seventy three thousand dollars yet what this does is due to the fact that we ' re getting so a lot from these 2 sources it really minimizes the need for the profile to do and if we kind of go out go on out via retired life you see Social Security isn ' t boosting revenue so later on in life currently we ' re up to regarding 89 practically 90 000 of earnings as well as our ninety thousand dollars inflation adjusted retirement revenue requirement is covered by the amount of assured life time revenue that we have in the profile which then allows our profile equilibriums to support because we ' re not needing it to sustain our way of life later on in life so this is just one instance right here however we see the ending profile worth also though it spends down a little bit in the beginning years fine it begins to support since the revenue provided from the choices that we ' ve made placed us in a situation where we put on ' t have to take out so a lot from the profile Okay so now I want to look at a different test as well as simply to validate below the 500th situation was a standard of 4.6 but you saw the various order of those returns and exactly how we really obtained to 4.6 all right so if we move this up here allow ' s think it ' s a rather negative scenario this is going to let me alter it here find a worse return all right so this brings the average down to 3.05 and also we still see in bar chart kind below that the portfolio value still is stabilized and it ' s mainly because that adjustment in the Social Safety decision as well as adding the Deferred earnings annuity it still places us into that position to where if the market doesn ' t execute we have sufficient revenue from assured sources'that we ' re not reliant on the stock market to offer us income in retirement specifically later on in life when we generally are much more conventional as well as a lot of individuals that I ' ve worked with put on ' t have the same stomach at 80 or 82 to remain spent in Big Market pullbacks as they did when they were 52 or 62.

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Step 1 The Retirement Success Process: Investment and Risk Management

foreign welcome back to the retired life income show I'' m Mark Elliott right here with the chief executive officer as well as founder of Oak Harvest Money group we'' re speaking concerning the retirement success strategy once it'' s in area it'' s refrained it ' s not finished it ' s always transforming and advancing with you and your life so it'' s really crucial to obtain this in position to have a plan give you much more confidence and as well as be a lot more comfortable in retirement with perhaps with any luck not so much stress and anxiety concerning where you are once more that number is 800-822-6434 to discover more 800-822-6434 Troy'' s damaging down what is specifically the retired life success plan so it starts with the financial investment strategy after that it'' s the earnings plan after that it'' s a tax obligation strategy then it ' s a health insurance and after that it is the estate plan so I intend to type of connection together why that sequence is is essential just quickly however if you don'' t understand if you wear ' t have a correct danger management framework in position certainly you open the potential for losses past your readiness to persevere now it'' s not just stay the training course with the Investments it ' s remain the training course with your retired life success strategy with your monetary strategy so we need to Define what those guard rails are initially this is the procedure of recognizing where your threat restrictions are so if you think of you'' re decreasing a highway as well as certainly you have guard rails on each side and if you go off the highway those guard rails exist to protect you from going into the opposing Direction on the freeway currently in retirement when we'' re discussing handling threat when we can recognize these psychological guardrails so are you going to see as well as I as well as I'' d like to Define threat in terms of bucks not percents and I'' ll inform you why soon but'allow ' s say you have a million bucks saved for retired life if all that money is in your 401k most importantly we have to realize that it'' s not truly a million dollars because every dollar in there is tax obligation deferred so we have to comprehend we'' re mosting likely to resolve that as part of this procedure however when we chat regarding risk we need to comprehend that not every one of those dollars are yours you have a junior companion on that account we want to maintain them a younger companion we wear'' t want Uncle Sam to come to be an elderly partner or a bulk share proprietor of your retirement account but simply recognizing that that not every one of that money is your own that you do have a jr companion in that account it connects right into this threat monitoring conversation a bit so when we talk regarding risk in terms of bucks are you happy to see your account go down 2 hundred thousand just an inquiry might be of course might be no it doesn'' t there is no right or incorrect answer however by asking these concerns we can begin to Define where your psychological guard rails are because the leading thing that you can do when it comes to spoiling a monetary strategy or a retirement is to have even more dangers so your accounts decrease greater than you can psychologically endure psychologically stand up to and afterwards you market get out being in cash for 2 or three years miss out on the rebound and currently you'' re you ' re in a you recognize you ' re in a bad negative negative spot'I can ' t inform you I mean we ' ve been with this a lot of times with customers and discussions regarding you recognize Troy I ' ve been seeing the information I believe we'' re going right into recession we require to leave the marketplace we require to do this or my accounts are down 10 or 20 or when covid hit we there'' s a prepare for for a correct strategy accounts for the marketplaces being down 20 or 30 percent so when we talk about risk administration as well as we'' re asking you these inquiries the reason that is since we'' re already preparing for recessions we'' re preparation for possible Market crashes this belongs to life all right we can not prevent these points unless we entirely stay in cash and if that'' s the instance you may too hide the cash in the backyard and just spend whatever you can and wish you don'' t run out and also eat rice as well as beans for for for retirement and that'' s not how the majority of our clients that ' s not how a lot of you desire to spend you understand after functioning for a whole job you wish to spend your life so are you fine with a 200 000 decrease by the way which is 20 as well as the reason I Specify it in regards to dollars is due to the fact that a long period of time ago I had actually a customer been available in well it was a potential client at the time and like the majority of economic consultants we would talk regarding it in regards to percentages and and we claimed are you fine with a 10 or 20 decrease he said you recognize what 20 is quite much my Max as well as he had around a million bucks so after that I I simply took place to place it in regards to bucks and also I stated okay so if your accounts go down 2 hundred thousand dollars you'' re alright with that and he said he claimed no Troy he said I would certainly fire you on the area therefore that you know for me it linked a Huge Dot It was type of a large development in my occupation when I was more youthful due to the fact that I understood I'' m an economic individual I do this each and every single day I believe in regards to percentages as well as stats and as well as yet the majority of people believe in terms of bucks so when we ask you that question you state yes I'' m all right with a 200 000 or 100 000 or perhaps it'' s not also near that or possibly it'' s much much much extra what that does for us is it helps to Define what sort of profile we require to create so emotionally there'' s a tiny possibility that it is mosting likely to hit your your disadvantage guard ramp and if we can go via retired life and never hit that disadvantage guard rail well there'' s an excellent opportunity from our experience that you'' re mosting likely to persevere you'' re mosting likely to stick with your plan and also if you can stick to your plan you have a much higher possibility of success in retirement this is why we call it the retired life success procedure this is why we call it a retired life success plan this is what we wish to supply to you so currently I claimed I wished to chat a bit about the series and why threat management in investment preparation precedes if we don'' t and in the majority of straightforward terms if if your money allow'' s claim you have a million bucks as well as you never ever needed to take anything out if you average four percent versus nine percent at greater prices of return you clearly can expect your accounts to expand to a bigger worth that indicates the income preparation is influenced that additionally means that currently your tax planning is influenced so we can'' t construct a revenue strategy or a tax obligation plan without initial understanding an approximated affordable expected return for a mix of Stocks inside a profile so step one needs to be this risk administration discussion which after that can lead us to the investment construction of your profile which after that gives us a pretty excellent suggestion of expected return benefit drawback discrepancy so we can now begin chatting regarding income planning we can actually project as well as do a sensitivity evaluation on tax planning based on various account levels allow me break that down for you before we enter into the tax preparation section later on the program if you have a million bucks in your IRA you are compelled to start taking a certain portion out it'' s around four percent at age 72 yet as you obtain to be 74 76 77 you'' re called for to distribute a larger as well as larger portion so if your million expands to 1.5 you take allow'' s claim four percent of that out that'' s a that ' s a number that is less than if your IRA expands to 2 million so the extra hostile your profile is or the higher expected return the more we need to prepare for that call for minimum circulation being a bigger number that rmd is the amount you'' re forced to obtain as well as pay taxes on we'' ve seen customers'I I ' d like to expression this for prospective clients since we resolve this with you as a client this belongs to the retirement success procedure and the retirement success strategy yet so usually when somebody comes in below and also they'' ve done a respectable job conserving they have eight hundred thousand they have a million they have two or three million when we start to do this analysis if you put on'' t address this tax obligation problem and it is a tax obligation problem it can be you know a tax obligation headache for a lot of you those rmds when we get out to be 75 and also 77 or 78 a hundred thousand hundred and also fifty thousand two hundred thousand now you'' re taking that cash out you'' re possibly not spending that much in addition to Social Protection in addition to any rental revenue or realty revenue or pension or returns or passion or any type of other earnings that you have beyond your pension and also we'' ve seen lots of people remain in a much greater tax obligation brace and also have much even more revenue in their 80s than they ever had throughout their whole life up to that point and also it'' s due to an absence of intending so that'' s what we ' re attempting to be successful of so we need to recognize the risk structure of our profile and exactly how we handle that threat so we can maintain you on training course we can keep you on timetable with your plan that after that gives us a suggestion of a range of expected returns based on fundamental monetary preparation Principles from there we can create that income strategy as well as earnings is not just Social Safety it'' s not simply just how much to secure wear'' t obtain me started on the 4 percent regulation however it is additionally where accounts as well as after that we enter the taxes so if you wear'' t have a retirement success strategy give us a phone call 1-800-822-6434 we ' re going to walk you with this process if you come to be a customer you will have this strategy in position that deals with risk Investments taxes income in addition to the remainder of the retired life success strategy 1-800-822-6434 Oak Harvest Financial Group examine out the site check out the YouTube network Oak Harvest Financial Team so we'' re discussing the retirement success plan Troy still obtained a great deal to reach remain with us we'' re back in one minute investment advising solutions offered with Oak Harvest Financial Team LLC Oak Harbor'' s Financial Group is an independent Financial Solutions company that assists individuals create retirement approaches using a range of insurance policy and financial investment products investing includes risk including the loss of principal any recommendations to security advantages or lifetime earnings generally refer to fixed Insurance policy products never ever Stocks or investment items insurance and also annuity product assurances are backed by the financial toughness and claims paying ability of the releasing insurer Oak Harbor'' s Financial Group LLC is not allowed to supply a No declaration made throughout this show will make up tax obligation or lawful guidance you should speak with a certified expert before making any type of decisions regarding your individual situation we are not associated with the United States federal government or any type of governmental company this radio program is a paid positioning international [Music]

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